Global Perspectives

An unstable equilibrium Fixed income

An unstable equilibrium

The global economy has entered what increasingly looks like an unstable equilibrium – a delicate balance between powerful tailwinds and equally powerful risks.

AI‑driven investment is accelerating growth and supporting market confidence, yet debt dynamics, policy uncertainty, and shifting global capital flows are stretching the system in new and unpredictable ways.

Are you prepared for the shift when it comes?

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19 Feb 2026 1 min read

Market viewpoints

April 2026

  • Risk of Bank of England hikes grows

    The Bank of England’s hawkish messaging reflects growing concern that sticky inflation and potential supply side pressures – such as energy prices – could force rate hikes, even as risks to growth rise. We have positioned UK rates portfolios to benefit from potential curve flattening should policy expectations shift in this direction.

    Harvey Bradley
    Harvey Bradley Co-Head of Global Rates Investment
  • Japan appears to be set for a stagflationary shock

    Japan continues to chart its own course as elevated inflation, growth at or above trend, and upward pressure on wages and inflation are all suggesting that the Bank of Japan will keep tightening monetary policy. However, Japan is particularly exposed to higher oil prices and, in our opinion, is set to receive a particularly large stagflationary shock. We favour tactically positioning for curve flattening in Japanese rates – but remain cognisant of the potential for dynamics to shift.

    Jill Hirzel
    Jill Hirzel Senior Investment Specialist
  • We believe there is value in some emerging markets after the energy price shock

    In emerging markets, local currency rates have generally underperformed as higher energy prices and elevated geopolitical risk have driven volatility in local currencies and pushed investors towards the US dollar and hard currency assets. We favour rates exposure in local markets that we believe are relatively robust, such as Poland and Czechia. We are also following Peru, Colombia and Brazil closely for opportunities in their local markets on the back of Presidential elections in the coming months.

    Federico Garcia Zamora
    Federico Garcia Zamora Head of EMD Macro Strategies

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