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Latest views
Global macro research: Climate refugees
23 January 2025
We seek to understand how global migration could be impacted by climate change.
Tariffs and Trade Wars – Implications of a Second Trump Presidency
15 August 2024
We explore how a more restrictive trade regime under a second Trump presidency could affect the US, its trading partners and the US dollar.
Global Macro Research: Asset allocation in focus
02 August 2024
We outline the asset allocation framework that lies at the heart of our multi-asset investment process.
Archive
The AI awakening: Productivity and the future of work
01 May 2024
Erik Brynjolfsson, one of the most-cited authors on the economics of information, examines the potential effects that artificial intelligence may produce on economies, living standards and society.
The unexpected resilience of global housing markets
19 March 2024
Global housing markets have held up better than expected through the rate hiking cycle. We think this strength could mean a slower rate cutting cycle than markets expect.
The scientific scrutiny of sustainability
11 March 2024
Alex Edmans, Professor of Finance at London Business School, explains how confirmation bias can be a challenge when it comes to sustainability and investment.
China: potential growth – lower for longer
14 February 2024
We continue to have a bearish view for Chinese growth over the medium term relative to current market expectations.
The case for a higher neutral interest rate
06 November 2023
In our view, the level of real interest rates at which central bank policy is neither stimulating or restricting growth has moved upwards.