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    UK fiscal update

    UK fiscal update

    We review the UK budget and the implications for growth, inflation and the Bank of England.

    The pivot from inflation to growth

    The pivot from inflation to growth

    Central banks have shifted focus from inflation to growth and a global easing cycle has started – this has stabilised growth and shifted our macro regime framework to a more positive outlook.

    Japan: A window for optimism

    Japan: A window for optimism

    A window for optimism has now opened in Japan, and the Bank of Japan has started to tighten policy for the first time since 2007.

    US labour market: Finely balanced

    US labour market: Finely balanced

    The US labour market has proved remarkably resilient in this cycle, but the demand and supply of labour appears finely balanced and at risk of tipping into recessionary conditions.

    Tariffs and Trade Wars – Implications of a Second Trump Presidency

    Tariffs and Trade Wars – Implications of a Second Trump Presidency

    We explore how a more restrictive trade regime under a second Trump presidency could affect the US, its trading partners and the US dollar.

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