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    Global inflation update: The battle against inflation has not been won

    Global inflation update: The battle against inflation has not been won Author: David Hooker

    February 20, 2025 Fixed income

    Recent data shows a decrease in headline inflation due to base effects, with energy prices around 25% lower than their recent peaks and food price inflation slowing to about 2% from nearly 20% some 18 months ago.

    Central banks generally appear to believe that the battle against inflation has been won and that monetary policy is restrictive enough to warrant easing. However, we believe the world has shifted to a more inflationary environment due to several structural issues.

    Seven Structural Issues Shaping Medium-Term Inflation:

    1. Big Government: Increased political intervention to mitigate global events, boosting aggregate demand and fuelling inflation.
    2. Increased Defence Spending: Higher defence budgets in Europe and Asia following the invasion of Ukraine.
    3. Debt Overhangs: High and rising debt levels creating a political bias towards inflation, potentially threatening central-bank independence.
    4. Demographics: An ageing global population driving up dependency ratios, contributing to higher levels of consumption and inflation.
    5. Deglobalisation and Regionalisation: The shift from globalisation to deglobalisation replacing disinflationary pressures with inflationary ones.
    6. Energy Transition: The transition to cleaner energy sources pushing up energy prices, adding to inflationary pressures.
    7. Technology: Technology, particularly AI, could be a disinflationary wildcard, but its impact is uncertain and may not counter inflationary trends in the near term.

    The conclusion of this analysis is that domestic factors are likely to become more significant in shaping the inflationary landscape, with policy divergence between global central banks reflecting domestic economic outcomes and policy objectives.

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