Latest views
The resurgence of Southern Europe
May 30, 2024
We believe the economic outperformance of Southern European countries relative to countries such as Germany should continue for some years to come.
New World Disorder
May 15, 2024
At a time of heightened geopolitical risk, the world’s leading superpower will be heading to the polls to choose a new president. It is hard to remember a time of greater division, and the two candidates will have very different approaches to the world’s problems.
US Election 2024: An early look
May 03, 2024
An early look at implications of the US Presidential election.
Previous research
The AI awakening: Productivity and the future of work
May 01, 2024
Erik Brynjolfsson, one of the most-cited authors on the economics of information, examines the potential effects that artificial intelligence may produce on economies, living standards and society.
The scientific scrutiny of sustainability
March 11, 2024
Alex Edmans, Professor of Finance at London Business School, explains how confirmation bias can be a challenge when it comes to sustainability and investment.
China: potential growth – lower for longer
February 14, 2024
We continue to have a bearish view for Chinese growth over the medium term relative to current market expectations.
The case for a higher neutral interest rate
November 06, 2023
In our view, the level of real interest rates at which central bank policy is neither stimulating or restricting growth has moved upwards.
Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?
October 13, 2023
Central banks have suppressed longer-dated bond yields, according to our analysis, undermining the value of an inverted yield curve as a recession signal.