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Global Macro Research - US labor market
October 29, 2024
The US labor market has proved remarkably resilient this cycle, but the demand and supply of labor appears finely balanced and at risk of tipping into recessionary conditions.
Tariffs and Trade Wars – Implications of a Second Trump Presidency
August 30, 2024
We explore how a more restrictive trade regime under a second Trump presidency could affect the US, its trading partners and the US dollar.
The resurgence of Southern Europe
May 30, 2024
We believe the economic outperformance of Southern European countries relative to countries such as Germany should continue for some years to come.
Previous research
New World Disorder
May 15, 2024
At a time of heightened geopolitical risk, the world’s leading superpower will be heading to the polls to choose a new president. It is hard to remember a time of greater division, and the two candidates will have very different approaches to the world’s problems.
US Election 2024: An early look
May 03, 2024
An early look at implications of the US Presidential election.
The AI awakening: Productivity and the future of work
May 01, 2024
Erik Brynjolfsson, one of the most-cited authors on the economics of information, examines the potential effects that artificial intelligence may produce on economies, living standards and society.
The unexpected resilience of global housing markets
March 19, 2024
Global housing markets have held up better than expected through the rate hiking cycle. We think this strength could mean a slower rate cutting cycle than markets expect.
The scientific scrutiny of sustainability
March 11, 2024
Alex Edmans, Professor of Finance at London Business School, explains how confirmation bias can be a challenge when it comes to sustainability and investment.