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Global Macro Research: Climate refugees
06 February 2025
We seek to understand how global migration could be impacted by climate change
Global Macro Research: Germany – is there any hope for the sick man of Europe?
23 January 2025
We consider why the German economy has struggled since the pandemic, and why the February 2025 election presents an opportunity for change.
Le Déluge - The French political trajectory
10 December 2024
We provide an update on recent political events in France.
Previous research
UK fiscal update
10 December 2024
We review the UK budget and the implications for growth, inflation and the Bank of England.
The pivot from inflation to growth
29 November 2024
Central banks have shifted focus from inflation to growth and a global easing cycle has started – this has stabilised growth and shifted our macro regime framework to a more positive outlook.
Global Macro Research: Japan: A window for optimism
11 November 2024
A window for optimism has now opened in Japan, and the Bank of Japan has started to tighten policy for the first time since 2007.
US labour market: Finely balanced
25 October 2024
The US labour market has proved remarkably resilient in this cycle, but the demand and supply of labour appears finely balanced and at risk of tipping into recessionary conditions.
Tariffs and Trade Wars – Implications of a Second Trump Presidency
14 August 2024
We explore how a more restrictive trade regime under a second Trump presidency could affect the US, its trading partners and the US dollar.
