Latest views
Global Macro Research - The Politics of ESG
07 May 2024
Sustainability is often viewed as extraneous to a business. However, managing the impact of externalities is a precondition for any business.
Global Macro Research - US Election 2024: An early look
03 May 2024
An early look at implications of the US Presidential election.
The AI awakening: Productivity and the future of work
01 May 2024
Erik Brynjolfsson, one of the most-cited authors on the economics of information, examines the potential effects that artificial intelligence may produce on economies, living standards and society.
Previous research
The unexpected resilience of global housing markets
19 March 2024
Global housing markets have held up better than expected through the rate hiking cycle. We think this strength could mean a slower rate cutting cycle than markets expect.
The scientific scrutiny of sustainability
11 March 2024
Alex Edmans, Professor of Finance at London Business School, explains how confirmation bias can be a challenge when it comes to sustainability and investment.
China: potential growth – lower for longer
14 February 2024
We continue to have a bearish view for Chinese growth over the medium term relative to current market expectations.
Asset returns post rate peaks
30 January 2024
Markets are pricing in the end of the rate cycle, and if they are correct then asset prices have historically performed well in the period between the last hike and the first cut.
The case for a higher neutral interest rate
06 November 2023
In our view, the level of real interest rates at which central bank policy is neither stimulating or restricting growth has moved upwards.